All it takes is some time to digest the current Santa Clarita real estate market conditions. I have five recent housing trends that are shaping up the Santa Clarita real estate market, keeping it free-flowing.
I'm constantly looking at the Santa Clarita housing data and I surmise that we are cooling off currently and making a slow transition from a home seller's market to the place which I call the "in-between".
Remember, when you want to buy any real estate, including new housing, you need your trusted advisor by your side, in the game and ready to perform. I have a ton of questions I ask the new home representative for my real estate clients benefit, directly to the new home builder's representative.
New Construction and New Homes breaking ground
New home real estate in the Santa Clarita Valley should not be embarked upon unless you a new home expert by your side. I offer that directly between myself and my real estate clients.
But, as you can see, we have over 19 locations that are mapped out at NewSantaClaritaHomes.com and over 20 that have been approved to move forward. Imagine the traffic that will exist after all is said and done.
But, the SCV - It's a great place to call home for sure.
New homes have a lot to do with the local Santa Clarita real estate market. We learn that the think tanks within the new home corporations are remarkable.
Preceding the last foreclosure cycle, back in 2007, I noticed that the new home builders were closing their doors months before the 2nd largest subprime bank folded in the way of bankruptcy. I did not "click" until years later, but once it did the writing on the wall was clear.
When a person is interested in the strength of the current housing market, they have to look no further than the new home builders. Come along with us for a new home tour in the Santa Clarita Valley. We will take you around and give you the intel that you may have a hard time obtaining from the new home builder's representative.
Looking to the New Homes and the builder activity is one of the five tenents that we use to see how the Santa Clarita real estate market is fairing.
Charts and graphs are lovely and provide small bite-sized chunks of real estate data about the Santa Clarita real estate market.
Number 2 on my "Santa Clarita real estate market" update list is the standing inventory. What are the amounts of housing inventory, and how do those numbers stack up against the historical records?
Some examples of the impact of this real estate market statistic would be the following.
If we were in a seller's market, we'd see that inventory is not only moving fast, but we'd have a typically lower than average inventory level. In such a market, the home sellers can be at the top of the transaction and get most, if not everything, that they want. They can entertain multiple offers. Those same home sellers are also able to have constricted time frames as it relates to the buyer's inspection period. Besides being able to demand the highest market price for the real estate they are selling, home sellers in a seller's market can be "choosy" when it comes to financing types and escrow time frames. When the Santa Clarita real estate inventory is low and the buyer drive high, the Santa Clarita home seller's market is in its right stride.
When the inventory starts to change, where the current listings are increasing week after week at a pace that is outrunning the seller's desire to sell homes, the market is moving into the "In-between" real estate market, which is something that I have coined recently.
The great in-between is where the real estate market is more balanced than being in a Seller's market or in a buyer's market. There are very few distressed homes (foreclosures) that are on the market for sale. The typical reference point for the distressed real estate inventory during an in-between market phase is to have less than 1% homes which are distressed on the market for sale.
These Distressed homes which I am referencing are:
- Bank Owned Foreclosures
- Real Estate Owned listings
- Short Sales - aka Short Pays
- Default Sales
One of the best indicators for the market, making the switch from either a buyer's or seller's market would be a substantial increase or decrease in inventory, respectively.
The final market dynamic would be the home buyer's market. In this typical market, you will see inventory at all-time high levels. While there may be plenty of Santa Clarita home buyers in the market buying up real estate, it won't be enough to outrun the seller's inventory that is entering the housing market.
Another factor, which would be rare, but could turn a housing market is the new home builders overbuilding then having to liquidate their standing inventory at a discount. If this were to occur in high numbers, it could move a real estate and housing market from being in the in-between to a buyer's housing market in short order.
It's taking longer to sell Santa Clarita real estate
When Santa Clarita real estate inventory starts to build and when we begin to have the amount of inventory to cause the sales of real estate to slow, we will start to show that increase in averages of "Days to Sell."
Currently in the Santa Clarita real estate market - as of Mid July 2019, we are seeing a slight uptick in the housing market wherein the Cities of Castaic, Canyon Country, Newhall, Saugus, Stevenson Ranch, and Valencia it's taking a bit longer to sell homes and real estate due to the days to sell is increasing.
Of course, this dynamic, like all real estate and housing market dynamics, are best digested in larger pieces. When you look at the statistics from month to month you will see much more aggressive jumps and market fluctuations. Of course, the shorter duration statistics makes for multiple points of commentary within the fake news cycle.
Fake Real Estate Data - Please allow me to segway into this for a minute. Within the online channels, there are websites which are not "local". They are large corporate real estate websites which are publicly traded on the stock exchange. They are in business because they are selling information and data. Your Information and Data!
They are selling it to a lot of various entities. Not just real estate agents, but lenders, box stores, home improvement businesses, locksmiths, car dealers, mortgage brokers, banks, credit unions, the local grocery store, local companies, and others.
One way you can protect yourselves is to find the "local site." It's worth your time and that action will keep your personal information safe from being sold and you getting spammed to a high degree. I write articles such as this to inform the masses about the online tricks and to find the best information about the local Santa Clarita real estate and housing market.
If you are looking for real estate elsewhere, just let me know, and I'll find you that "local" expert that you will be able to contact and handle your real estate dealings. I will not sell, offer, give, or covey your personal and private information. I will only make the introduction to the agent which I would use in that market if roles were reversed.
The Days to Sell indicator within the Santa Clarita market is currently on an overall upswing due to local inventory numbers increasing during the past few months and with a strong buyer drive, which is not enough to lap up that extra inventory. (keep reading, BTW, any and all links within this article, as with most of our website, are internal in nature only. I don't have ads; I don't allow any real estate vendors to pay for placement, I'm all in and don't want my clients to have to deal with that junk!)
Interest rates are currently in the high 3's for Santa Clarita home loans
- 30-year fixed conventional 1st Mortgage with 25% down - 3.875% (3.930 APR). Loan amounts up to $484,350.00 = $2277.59
- 15-year fixed conventional 1st Mortgage with 25% - 3.250% (3.350 APR). Loan amounts up to $484,350.00 = $3403.38
- 5/1 ARM 1st Mortgage - 25% down - Fixed for 5 years and then becomes variable - 3.250% - (3.2605 APR) Loan amounts up to $3,000,000.00 = $13,056.19
- 7/1 ARM 1st Mortgage - 25% Fixed for 7 years and then becomes variable - 3.375% - (3.385 APR) Loan amounts up to $3,000,000.00 = $13,262.89
- 10/1 ARM 1st Mortgage - 25% Fixed for 10 years and then becomes variable - 3.500% - (3.510 APR) Loan amounts up to $3,000.,000.00 = $13,471.34
- 30-year fixed 1st Mortgage FHA loan 3.50% down - 3.500% (4.914 APR). Loan amounts up to $484,350.00 = $2213.01 + $349.08 PMI = $2562.09
- 30-year fixed 1st Mortgage VA loan 0% - 3.500% (3.681 APR). Loan amounts up to $484,350.00 = $2174.95
- 30 Year Fixed rate 1st Mortgage Jumbo Loan 25% down - 4.375% (4.399 APR). loan amounts up to $3,000,000.00 =14,978.56
All of the above are based on a 740 credit score with 25% down on conventional and Jumbo Loans. Rates are subject to change without notice, your mileage may vary!
Thanks to Mike Meena with Augusta Financial for today's real estate interest rates that he offers to our Santa Clarita home buyers.
Price Reductions in Santa Clarita Valley occur over 25% of the time
Currently, in the Santa Clarita Valley, we have 1132 real estate listings that are now either "Active - pending or active in escrow."
The market indicator that is finally addressed to get a good handle on the current Santa Clarita real estate market is going to be Price Reductions and Price Increases.
Within the real estate, a home seller rarely increases the listing price of the home which is being sold. When you are looking online and see a price increase, it's mostly the case where a real estate agent hit the enter button before double-checking their work. They entered all of the listing information within the multiple listing service, in a form flow type entry portal within the MLS website. When they were done, before double-checking the number on the contract and the number they typed into the "listing price" field, they hit publish the listing.
Once that happens, there is no going back. This is the reason why I am always very critical about hitting that button. Of course, mistakes and errors happen. However, this is one more thing that I am able to control, at least somewhat, and I know that to have a real estate syndication website pull the data again after the initial publish action is going to take time.
The pulling of the real estate listing by the real estate syndication websites is immediate. The pulling again to update changes within that same listing does not happen as often. Heck, they are not local. These are the websites I spoke about, and they are massive and try to cover every single home, condo, townhome, and piece of land that is for sale, has been sold, and is in existence.
Currently, as of this Santa Clarita real estate market article - Published July 17, 2019, the Santa Clarita Valley Residential real estate numbers are the following pertaining to price changes.
I researched the cities of Castaic, Canyon Country, Saugus, Newhall, Valencia, and Stevenson Ranch. I ran all residential real estate and housing inventory in the SCV.
I also pulled the active listings, those listings which are under contract in escrow still wanting back up offers (active under contract), and I also ran the homes which are in escrow not wanting any further showings or offers (pending).
After compiling the data, I found the following.
- Total residential inventory in Santa Clarita - 1132
- Full residences that have experienced a price change during their current listing time-frame - 466
- Overall price increases which occurred in the Santa Clarita Valley within this market study - 34
- Total price decreases which happened within the same data set for SCV residential - 432
That translates to, regarding our current Santa Clarita housing market, 38% of the homes for sale are experiening at least one price reduction before selling!
As you can see - we have a lot of price reductions, which starts to pick up when the real estate market is beginning to shift.
The shift precursors could be only very temporary; such is the case when the market changes due to the cycle of the calendar. For example, we see a slower market traditionally during the winter months. When the market breaks into spring and then summer, most years we see dramatic upswings in real estate activity, both on the real estate seller's side and the real estate buyer's side.
We are Mid Summer and the next calendar contributing market change potentially be the transition from Summer to Fall. I will keep you posted on all fronts and I'm Connor MacIvor.
I'm glad to be at your service as it pertains to everything that is real estate. Thanks for taking the time to read about the Santa Clarita real estate and housing market. Our update includes the current market statistics as obtained from the multiple listing service via the Southland Regional Association of Realtors - the SRAR and our SCVnest website which provides the real estate listings which are in the Multiple Listing Service, updated and always legit. SCVnest also powers our Santa Clarita blog, which is number 1 on Google.
When you are ready, I'm here and I will be there for you and yours pertaining to everything that you desire to do with the real estate realm in the Santa Clarita Valley (personally handled by me), or outside of the areas in which we serve our clients in real estate (vetted and personally referred by me). Be safe - I'm just a phone call or text away, 661.400.1720.